摘要

The sawn timber industry is highly dependent on the building industry, which is in the midst of a downturn. When will the next upturn begin, how long will it last, and what are the prospects for sawn timber over the long term? Is the industry entering a new era of competition in international trade? What are the prospects for exports and imports? What are the consequences of the decreasing access to native hardwood resources, increasing plantation softwood supplies and changing consumer preferences?

The aim of this report is to determine the future direction of sawn timber demand and supply, in Australia and each of the states. This has been achieved with a survey of key end users and suppliers, including residential and non-residential builders, frame and truss manufacturers, furniture manufacturers, and timber merchants.

目录及图表

Report Objectives

  • Provide a basis for firms and organisations operating in the industry to make strategic decisions on issues such as marketing, pricing, production, investment and trade.
  • Identify the key driving factors;
  • Identify and quantify current and projected production, consumption, trade flows and competitive dynamics;
  • Highlight the major developments and changes facing the industry in Australia and internationally;
  • Assess the usage patterns of different species of timber and timber substitutes in different applications and market segments;
  • Discussion of sawn timber usage in new housing, home improvements, nonresidential construction, furniture and other sectors, by application. Applications include framing, mouldings, external applications, windows and doors, furniture, fencing and other applications. Competitive products currently being substituted for sawn timber, including engineered wood products, wood plastic composites and steel.
  • Forecast sawn timber demand, supply, international trade and prices over the next fifteen years

Structure of the Report

The report is organized into ten chapters:

  • An overview of global sawn timber markets is provided in Chapter 2, including data on world consumption and production, with a focus on key importing and exporting countries.
  • Chapter 3 discusses the structure, key drivers and current issues of the sawn timber industry in Australia,
  • The results of the survey of current and expected future timber demand in Australia are provided in Chapter 4.
  • Chapter 5 provides the results of the survey of suppliers and timber merchants. This includes an assessment of the sawn timber distribution system, sales by market segment and prices, sources and problems of supply, current and projected species stocked, and interstate trading.
  • As a basis for forecasting production, consumption, trade and prices, a 15-year outlook for the Australian economy and the building industry are provided in Chapters 6 and 7.
  • Historical and future demand forecasts are provided in Chapter 8, based on a model of timber usage by application within the key end use sectors. Total timber usage by state is aggregated to provide demand forecasts at the national level.
  • The supply and demand for sawn timber are brought together in Chapter 9. It analyzes the prospects for international trade including a state by state assessment of export and import substitution capability.
  • Chapter 10 provides five year historical data and price series, and fifteen year forecasts for the main structural and appearance grade categories.

Basis of Forecast

The forecasts for production, consumption, trade and prices are based on a number of variables including:

  • short term and long term economic outlook,
  • current and projected end use patterns,
  • historical demand, supply and price cycles,
  • forecast cycles of key market drivers, especially housing construction,
  • projected level of substitution by alternative products, and
  • projected availability of raw materials. 
 


TABLE OF CONTENTS (Condensed)



EXECUTIVE SUMMARY



1.	INTRODUCTION

1.1	Objectives

1.2	Methodology

1.3	Organisation of the report



2.	GLOBAL OVERVIEW

2.1	Global forest resources

2.2	Global forest products industry

2.3	Global market for sawn timber

2.4	Global consumption of sawn timber

2.5	Global trade in sawn timber

2.6	Issues related to global trade in sawn timber

  

3.	SAWN TIMBER INDUSTRY IN AUSTRALIA

3.1	Introduction

3.2	Resource availability

3.3	Industry structure

3.4	Sawn timber production facilities

3.5	Major issues affecting the sawn timber industry



4.	SAWN TIMBER USAGE BY MARKET SEGMENT

4.1	Detached houses

4.2	Timber usage by builders of other dwellings

4.3	Builders of alterations and additions

4.4	Non-residential builders

4.5	Wall framing and roof truss manufacturers

4.6	Furniture manufacturers

5.	SAWN TIMBER DISTRIBUTION IN AUSTRALIA

5.1	Timber species stocked

5.2	Source of timber stocked

5.3	Rating of Australian timber supplier by state

5.4	Rating of imported timber supplier by country

5.5	Timber sales by market sector

5.6	Anticipated change in demand in two years time

5.7	Anticipated change in price in two years time

5.8	Important factors in choosing timber supplier

5.9	Supply problems in past year

5.10	Anticipated future supply problems

5.11	Timber pricing



6.	PROSPECTS FOR THE AUSTRALIAN ECONOMY

6.1	Economic outlook



7.	PROSPECTS FOR THE BUILDING INDUSTRY IN AUSTRALIA

7.1	The building industry cycle

7.2	Underlying demand for dwellings

7.3	Building industry forecasts



8.	SAWN TIMBER DEMAND FORECASTS

8.1	Summary and scope of forecasts

8.2	Background

8.3	Sawn timber demand forecasts, Australia

8.4	Sawn timber demand forecast, New South Wales

8.5	Sawn timber demand forecasts, Victoria

8.6	Sawn timber demand forecasts, Queensland

8.7	Sawn timber demand forecasts, South Australia

8.8	Sawn timber demand forecasts, Western Australia

8.9	Sawn timber demand forecasts, Tasmania



9.	SAWN TIMBER SUPPLY FORECASTS

9.1	Background

9.2	Forecasting methodology

9.3	National sawn timber supply

9.4	Outlook for sawn timber production

9.5	Sawn timber supply, New South Wales (including ACT)

9.6	Sawn timber supply, Victoria

9.7	Sawn timber supply, Queensland

9.8	Sawn timber supply, South Australia & Northern Territory

9.9	Sawn timber supply, Western Australia

9.10	Sawn timber supply, Tasmania



10.	PRICE FORECASTS

10.1	Introduction

10.2	Data sources

10.3	Price forecasts